Exploring Reef Futures (D4.2)

Task leader: Dr Scott Wooldridge, Australian Institute od Marine Science.

Task associate: NA.

The project will assess the consequences of future disturbance regimes (natural and/or anthropogenic) and management scenarios (i.e. levels of protection and use) on the long-term character and persistence of coral reef ecosystems within the GBR. (Other habitats will be amenable to similar analysis. Coral reefs are the first choice for research because of their direct importance to tourism and biodiversity conservation, and their high public profile). Both disturbances and effects of management are patchy in time and space. Disturbances include crown of thorns starfish, ocean warming causing coral bleaching, cyclones, and flood plumes. Effects of management will be explored through spatial simulation of the ecological consequences of water quality parameters and rate of grazing. The project will deliver the Reef Futures spatial simulator. The simulator will be a decision support model (DSM) designed to communicate at the interface between scientists, stakeholders, and decision makers. We will couple the DSM with an animated GIS-type graphical interface that will allow users to explore the model GBR. The DSM will enable us to rapidly explore with users a variety of scenarios such that the implications of a range of options can be understood. We can then present the probabilities of various outcomes in a relative sense; providing stakeholders and decision makers with a realistic appraisal of the chances of achieving desired goals.