Northern Territory - Storm Surge Study (B3.12)

Task Leader: Professor Tom Hardy, James Cook University

Task associate: NA.

The project is designed to provide a real-time tropical cyclone storm tide prediction system for the Northern Australian coastline under the jurisdiction of the Darwin Regional Office that will:

• Utilise forecast parameters of cyclone intensity, size, speed and track;
• Enable forecasters to make allowence for variability in the forecast parameters;
• Estimate the potential magnitude, location, and duration of the storm surge;
• Combine the storm surge linearly with the predicted astronomical tide;
• Estimate the simultaneous effect of breaking wave setup;
• Produce a prediction of the total water level (storm tide) comprising the surge, tide and wave setup;
• Provide guidence to emergency services on the possible range of the predicted storm tide as a function of the forecast variability, including the maximum potential level.

The work is being done principally by Systems Engineering Australia with Marnie Modelling Unit undertaking the numerical grid development and participating in the calibration studies.