Queensland’s coastal communities are under less threat from cyclone storm
surges than was previously thought, according to an award-winning CRC Reef
study which will enable communities to plan future land use and emergency
management procedures.

Queensland Emergency Services Minister Chris Cummins presents Prof Hardy with the Safer Communities award. Photo by CRC Reef.

CRC Reef researchers Professor Tom Hardy, Mr Luciano Mason and Mr Ashley Astorquia from James Cook University’s Marine Modelling Unit were part of the team that won both State and National Safer Communities Awards.

Their project used state-of-the-art computer modelling to identify the probability of different coastal water levels during tropical cyclones for communities from Cape York to the Gold Coast.

“We modelled 10,000 simulated storms to represent cyclones that could threaten the east coast of Queensland,” Professor Hardy said. “Each of these cyclones would create a different level of storm surge, but that is only half the story. The water level when the cyclone hits also depends on the level
of the tide at that time. So we combined the storm surges from each cyclone with many possible tide scenarios to find ‘storm-tides’.”

The storm-tide levels were predicted for 50 locations along the east coast of Queensland. Interestingly, these water levels are lower than had been suggested by previous studies.

Professor Hardy attributes the lower level to the sophistication of new modelling tools. While earlier computer models simulated cyclones tracks in straight lines, with constant central pressure and speed, the model that they have developed can generate more realistic cyclone scenarios. It also uses high resolution information about the shape of the coastline and seabed.

“New high-resolution computer modelling techniques enable us to make increasingly accurate estimates of the probability of different storm tides during cyclone events. This will help local and state government planning, and
will also enable the Bureau of Meteorology to implement an improved storm tide warning system,” Professor Hardy said.

The Queensland Climate Change and Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones project was completed through the combined efforts of the Queensland Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Department of Emergency Services, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Queensland). Financial support was provided by the State Greenhouse Special Treasury Initiative and the Commonwealth/State Natural Disasters Risk Management Studies Program.

For more information contact Professor Tom Hardy, thomas.hardy@jcu.edu.au

CRC Reef Research Centre Ltd

PO Box 772 Townsville
Queensland 4810 Australia
Telephone: 61 47298400
Facsimile: 6147298499
Email: Info@crcreef.com
Website: www.reef.crc.org.au

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CRC Reef Research Centre Ltd was established and is supported under the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Program. Its mission is to plan, fund and manage world-leading science for the sustainable use of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area. CRC Reef is a joint venture between Association of Marine Park Tourism Operators, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Great Barrier Reef Research Foundation, James Cook University, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Queensland Seafood Industry Association, and Sunfish Queensland Inc. The University of Queensland is an associate member.

December 2004 In this Issue:

FUTURE CYCLONES MAKE A SMALLER SPLASH THAN EXPECTED

December 2004
In this Issue: