Future cyclones make a smaller splash than expected

1 November 2004  

Queensland Minister for Emergency Services Chris Cummins gives the award to Prof Tom Hardy. Photo: CRC Reef

Queensland 's coastal communities are under less threat from cyclone storm surges than was previously thought, according to an award-winning CRC Reef study which will enable communities to plan future land use and emergency management procedures.

CRC Reef researchers Professor Tom Hardy, Mr Luciano Mason, and Mr Ashley Astorquia from James Cook University 's Marine Modelling Unit were part of the team that won this year's Commonwealth and Queensland Governments ‘Safer Communities Award' for Queensland.

Their project used state-of-the-art computer modelling to identify the probability of different coastal water levels during tropical cyclones for communities from Cape York to the Gold Coast.

“We modelled 10,000 simulated storms to represent cyclones that could threaten the east coast of Queensland ,” Prof. Hardy said. “Each of these cyclones would create a different level of storm surge, but that is only half the story. The water level when the cyclone hits also depends on the level of the tide at that time. So we combined the storm surges from each cyclone with many possible tide scenarios, to find ‘storm-tides'.”

The storm-tide levels were predicted for 50 locations along the east coast of Queensland . Interestingly, these water levels are lower than had been suggested by previous studies.

Lou Mason and Tom Hardy with a model of wave heights during cyclone Althea. Phot: CRC Reef

Prof. Hardy attributes the lower level to the sophistication of new modelling tools. While earlier computer models simulated cyclones tracks in straight lines, with constant central pressure and speed, the model that they have developed can generate more realistic cyclone scenarios. It also uses high resolution information about the shape of the coastline and seabed.

“New high-resolution computer modelling techniques enable us to make increasingly accurate estimates of the probability of different storm tides during cyclone events. This will help local and state government planning, and will also enable the Bureau of Meteorology to implement an improved storm tide warning system,” Prof. Hardy said.

The Queensland Climate Change and Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones project also included work to develop a model for housing damage during cyclones, which was carried out by the Cyclone Testing Station at James Cook University.

The project was completed through the combined efforts of the Queensland Environmental Protection Age ncy, Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Department of Emergency Services, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology ( Queensland ). Financial support was provided by the State Greenhouse Special Treasury Initiative and the Commonwealth/State Natural Disasters Risk Management Studies Program. The project is now eligible for Emergency Management Australia's National Safer Communities Awards, to be presented in November.

For more information:

Prof. Tom Hardy, James Cook University, 07 4781 4984, thomas.hardy@jcu.edu.au

Ms Chloe Lucas , CRC Reef Media Liaison, 07 4729 8450 or 0408 884 521, chloe.lucas@crcreef.com